2022 Ontario general election
The 2022 Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[2] The Legislative Assembly of Ontario can be dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggers a snap election. Since the current government has a majority, it is a near-certainty that any non-confidence vote would not pass. In terms of an unexpected snap election, on October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[3][4]
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124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Standings
| Party | Party leader | Seats | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Current | |||
| Progressive Conservative | Doug Ford | 76 | 69 | |
| New Democratic | Andrea Horwath | 40 | 40 | |
| Liberal | Steven Del Duca | 7 | 7 | |
| Green | Mike Schreiner | 1 | 1 | |
| New Blue | Jim Karahalios | 0 | 1 | |
| Independent | 5 | |||
| Vacant | 1 | |||
| Total | 124 | 124 | ||
Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[5]
Timeline
2018
- June 7: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario under Doug Ford wins a majority government in the 42nd Ontario general election, with Andrea Horwath's New Democrats forming the Official Opposition. After leading the party to the worst result in its history, outgoing Premier Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, but remains MPP for Don Valley West.[6]
- June 14: Ottawa South MPP John Fraser is named interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[7]
- June 29: Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford is sworn in as the 26th Premier of Ontario.[8]
- July 11: Wellington—Halton Hills MPP Ted Arnott, a Progressive Conservative, is elected Speaker by secret ballot.[9]
- November 2: Former interim Progressive Conservative leader Jim Wilson resigns as Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade and from the Progressive Conservative caucus due to allegations of sexual misconduct.[10]
- November 29: Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Progressive Conservative MPP Amanda Simard leaves the Progressive Conservative caucus after Premier Ford had eliminated the province's French-language services commissioner and cancelled plans for a new French-language university.[11]
2019
- February 21: Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Progressive Conservative MPP Randy Hillier is suspended from the caucus indefinitely for allegedly making disrespectful comments to parents of children with autism.[12] Hillier was officially expelled from the PC caucus on March 15, a day after he released a statement via Twitter suggesting his suspension was due to tensions between himself and the premier's senior advisors.[13]
- July 31: Ottawa—Vanier Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers resigns her seat to become principal of Massey College.[14]
- September 20: Orléans Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde resigns her seat in the provincial legislature to run as the Liberal candidate in Orléans for the 2019 federal election.[15]
2020
- January 16: Glengarry—Prescott—Russell independent MPP Amanda Simard crosses the floor to join the Liberal caucus.[16]
- February 27: Liberals Stephen Blais and Lucille Collard win byelections in the ridings of Orléans and Ottawa—Vanier, respectively.[17]
- March 7: Former Vaughan MPP and cabinet minister Steven Del Duca is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[18]
- July 21: Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios is ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus for voting against the government's bill, Bill 195, making her an independent MPP.[19]
- October 5: MPP's vote unanimously in favour of a motion introduced by MPP Mitzie Hunter stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[20][21]
2021
- January 15: York Centre MPP Roman Baber is ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus for his opposition to the provinces lockdown and restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, making him an independent MPP.[22]
- January 18: Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios, forms the New Blue Party of Ontario caucus in the Legislative Assembly.[23]
- August 17: Don Valley East MPP Michael Coteau resigns his seat in the provincial legislature to run as the Liberal candidate in Don Valley East for the 2021 federal election.[24][25]
- August 19: Chatham-Kent—Leamington MPP Rick Nicholls is ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus after refusing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Premier Ford had previously given all PC caucus members a 5pm deadline to provide proof of vaccination or a statement of medical exemption signed by a physician or registered nurse.[26]
- October 22: Durham MPP Lindsey Park resigns[27] from the Progressive Conservative caucus and will not seek re-election. On October 1, 2021, Park had been removed from her role as parliamentary assistant to the attorney general after misrepresenting her COVID-19 vaccination status.[28] Park said the statement "misrepresented her vaccination status."
- November 8: Randy Hillier announces that he will run under the banner of the People's Party of Canada's Ontario wing, known as the Ontario First Party.[29][30][31]
Candidates
See also: Candidates of the 43rd Ontario general election
Incumbents not running for reelection
| Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee | New MPP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley West | Kathleen Wynne[32] | Stephanie Bowman[33] | |||
| Simcoe—Grey | Jim Wilson[34] | – | |||
| Thornhill | Gila Martow[35] | – | |||
| Windsor—Tecumseh | Percy Hatfield[36] | – | |||
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | Amy Fee[37] | Jess Dixon[38] | |||
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | Rick Nicholls[39] | – | |||
| Durham | Lindsey Park[40] | – | |||
| Perth—Wellington | Randy Pettapiece[41] | – | |||
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | Jim McDonell[42] | – | |||
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | Norm Miller[43] | Graydon Smith | |||
Opinion polls
| Polling organisation | Last date of polling | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other | Polling type | Sample size | Margin of error | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EKOS | November 25, 2021 | HTML | 32.8 | 23.1 | 28.3 | 5.2 | 10.5 | IVR | 569 | ±4.1% | 4.5 |
| Innovative Research Group | November 17, 2021 | 34.8 | 27 | 32.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | Online | 1000 | N/A | 2.2 | |
| Leger | November 14, 2021 | 34 | 26 | 31 | 6 | 3 | Online | 1,001 | ±3.1% | 3 | |
| Leger | October 10, 2021 | 35 | 25 | 30 | 5 | 5 | Online | 1,003 | ±3.1% | 5 | |
| Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | 34 | 32 | 25 | 4 | 5 | Online | 910 | N/A | 2 | |
| Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | HTML | 37 | 33 | 22 | 6 | 3 | Online | 791 | ±2% | 4 |
| Leger | May 23, 2021 | HTML | 34 | 25 | 26 | 9 | n/a | Online | 1,001 | ±3.1% | 8 |
| Mainstreet Research | May 16, 2021 | 33 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 6 | Online | 958 | ±3% | 5 | |
| Campaign Research | May 8, 2021 | HTML | 36 | 25 | 28 | 7 | 4 | Online | 2,009 | ±2% | 8 |
| Innovative Research Group | May 4, 2021 | 32 | 22 | 36 | 8 | 2 | Online | 481 | N/A | 4 | |
| Abacus Data | April 21, 2021 | HTML | 34 | 23 | 35 | 5 | 2 | Online | 1,007 | ±3.1% | 1 |
| Innovative Research Group | April 20, 2021 | 30 | 26 | 35 | 8 | 1 | Online | 800 | N/A | 5 | |
| Abacus Data | April 14, 2021 | HTML | 34 | 23 | 34 | 5 | 4 | Online | 817 | ±3.5% | 0 |
| Innovative Research Group | April 13, 2021 | 32 | 24 | 33 | 8 | 2 | Online | 704 | N/A | 1 | |
| EKOS | April 12, 2021 | HTML | 34.6 | 23.5 | 29.9 | 8.9 | 3 | IVR | 1204 | ±2.8% | 4.7 |
| Campaign Research | April 6, 2021 | HTML | 41 | 22 | 24 | 10 | 2 | Online | 1,886 | ±2.3% | 17 |
| Leger | March 22, 2021 | 38 | 28 | 23 | 8 | 3 | Online | 1,002 | ±3.1% | 10 | |
| Campaign Research | March 11, 2021 | HTML | 43 | 25 | 20 | 9 | 3 | Online | 1,344 | ±2.7% | 18 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 16, 2021 | HTML | 43 | 22 | 25 | 6 | 4 | IVR | 1,011 | ±3.08% | 18 |
| Campaign Research | January 31, 2021 | HTML | 44 | 25 | 21 | 8 | 3 | Online | 1,427 | ±2.6% | 19 |
| Abacus Data | January 12, 2021 | HTML | 34 | 25 | 29 | 8 | 3 | Online | 793 | ±3.48% | 5 |
| Mainstreet Research | December 5, 2020 | 46.2 | 23.4 | 19.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | IVR | 1,014 | ±2.94% | 22.8 | |
| Campaign Research | December 3, 2020 | 45 | 20 | 24 | 8 | 5 | Online | 1,001 | ±3% | 21 | |
| Angus Reid | November 30, 2020 | HTML | 42 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 3 | Online | 1,049 | N/A | 14 |
| Campaign Research | November 2, 2020 | HTML | 48 | 21 | 23 | 7 | 1 | Online | 1,118 | ±3% | 25 |
| Abacus Data | October 30, 2020 | HTML | 36 | 25 | 29 | 7 | 3 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 7 |
| Abacus Data | October 12, 2020 | HTML | 36 | 29 | 26 | 6 | 2 | Online | 1,000 | ±3.1% | 7 |
| Campaign Research | October 2, 2020 | HTML | 46 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 2 | Online | 1,017 | ±3% | 22 |
| Campaign Research | September 3, 2020 | HTML | 48 | 22 | 24 | 6 | 2 | Online | 1,129 | ±3% | 24 |
| Angus Reid | September 1, 2020 | 45 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 1 | Online | 1,026 | ±3% | 17 | |
| Campaign Research | August 13, 2020 | HTML | 41 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 3 | Online | 2,013 | ±2% | 15 |
| Innovative Research Group | July 20, 2020 | 36 | 18 | 37 | 8 | 1 | Online | 974 | N/A | 1 | |
| Campaign Research | July 10, 2020 | HTML | 45 | 20 | 27 | 7 | 1 | Online | 1,395 | ±3% | 18 |
| Innovative Research Group | June 23, 2020 | 31 | 21 | 39 | 9 | 1 | Online | 838 | N/A | 8 | |
| Mainstreet Research | June 7, 2020 | HTML | 41.8 | 23.0 | 27.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | IVR | 1,068 | ±3% | 14.1 |
| Campaign Research | June 2, 2020 | 44 | 22 | 27 | 6 | 2 | Online | 1,512 | ±2.5% | 17 | |
| Innovative Research Group | June 1, 2020 | 33 | 20 | 38 | 9 | 0 | Online | 698 | N/A | 5 | |
| Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | HTML | 43 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 1 | Online | 1,061 | N/A | 17 |
| Abacus Data | May 22, 2020 | HTML | 36 | 19 | 38 | 5 | 2 | Online | 597 | ±4.1% | 2 |
| Innovative Research Group | May 5, 2020 | 34 | 18 | 39 | 7 | 1 | Online | 791 | N/A | 5 | |
| EKOS | March 26, 2020 | HTML | 31.5 | 17.9 | 40.4 | 7.1 | 3.1 | IVR | 774 | ±3.5% | 8.9 |
| Mainstreet Research | March 20, 2020 | HTML | 33.1 | 23.2 | 33.0 | 6.9 | 3.8 | IVR | 1,017 | ±2.73% | 0.1 |
| 7 March 2020 | Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||
| Campaign Research | March 5, 2020 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 10 | 2 | Online | 1,144 | ±2.9% | 4 | |
| Angus Reid | February 28, 2020 | 36 | 31 | 24 | 8 | 1 | Online | 1,051 | ±3.0% | 5 | |
| Campaign Research | February 26, 2020 | 32 | 28 | 29 | 9 | 3 | Online | 1,003 | ±3.1% | 3 | |
| Campaign Research | February 9, 2020 | 30 | 26 | 30 | 11 | 3 | Online | 1,536 | ±2.5% | 0 | |
| EKOS | January 19, 2020 | HTML | 31.1 | 21.2 | 36.2 | 9.1 | 2.3 | IVR | 634 | ±3.9% | 5.1 |
| Pollara | January 11, 2020 | 29 | 27 | 33 | 9 | 2 | Online | 2,198 | ±2.1% | 4 | |
| EKOS | December 10, 2019 | 29.9 | 24.4 | 32.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | IVR | 811 | ±3.4% | 2.5 | |
| Campaign Research | September 9, 2019 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 11 | 2 | Online | 957 | ±3.17% | 4 | |
| Corbett Communications | August 16, 2019 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 11 | 2 | Online | 1,099 | ±3.0% | 0 | |
| Corbett Communications | July 10, 2019 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 15 | 3 | Online | 936 | ±3.0% | 0 | |
| Corbett Communications | June 6, 2019 | 32 | 27 | 26 | 13 | 1 | Online | 1,555 | ±3.0% | 5 | |
| Mainstreet Research | May 22, 2019 | HTML | 22.4 | 24.2 | 39.9 | 11.7 | 1.8 | IVR | 996 | ±3.1% | 15.7 |
| Ipsos | May 21, 2019 | HTML | 30 | 29 | 32 | 10[lower-alpha 1] | Online | 1,000 | ±3.5% | 2 | |
| Corbett Communications | May 3, 2019 | 35 | 25 | 27 | 12 | 1 | Online | 1,836 | ±2.4% | 8 | |
| Pollara | May 1, 2019 | 30 | 31 | 26 | 11 | 1 | Online | 1,527 | ±2.5% | 1 | |
| Mainstreet Research | March 22, 2019 | HTML | 34.4 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 9.4 | 3.6 | IVR | 1,290 | ±2.73% | 7.8 |
| Innovative Research Group | January 24, 2019 | 33 | 23 | 36 | 7 | 1 | Online | 751 | 3 | ||
| Mainstreet Research | January 17, 2019 | HTML | 41.4 | 27.0 | 22.6 | 7.0 | 2.2 | IVR | 1,127 | ±2.92% | 14.4 |
| EKOS | December 3, 2018 | 34.3 | 26.1 | 28.0 | 9.4 | 2.3 | IVR | 1,025 | ±3.1% | 6.3 | |
| Campaign Research | November 9, 2018 | HTML | 34 | 25 | 32 | 7 | 2 | Online | 1,830 | ±2.3% | 2 |
| Mainstreet Research | November 7, 2018 | HTML | 42.2 | 26.5 | 21.3 | 6.4 | 3.5 | IVR | 1,229 | ±2.79% | 15.7 |
| Innovative Research Group | October 28, 2018 | 35 | 25 | 32 | 7 | 1 | Online | 1,628 | 3 | ||
| Abacus Data | October 1, 2018 | HTML | 36 | 29 | 24 | 8 | 3 | Online | 1,500 | 7 | |
| Mainstreet Research | July 17, 2018 | HTML | 41.7 | 27.8 | 21.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | IVR | 1,861 | ±2.27% | 13.9 |
| 29 June 2018 | Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario | ||||||||||
| Innovative Research Group | June 21, 2018 | 37 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 2 | Telephone | 607 | ±4.0% | 1 | |
| 14 June 2018 | John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||
| 7 June 2018 | Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||
| 2018 election | June 7, 2018 | N/A | 40.50 | 33.56 | 19.59 | 4.60 | 1.75 | N/A | 5,744,860 | N/A | 6.94 |
Target seats
Below are listed all the electoral districts in which the winning candidate won by a margin of less than 5%. The Green Party's most marginal opportunity was in Parry Sound—Muskoka where the party finished 3rd with the PCs having a 28.05% margin.
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PC targets
| Rank | Electoral District | Winning party 2018 | 2018 Margin | PC's place 2018 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarborough—Guildwood | Liberal | 0.21% | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Brampton Centre | New Democratic | 0.26% | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Don Valley West | Liberal | 0.40% | 2nd | ||
| 4 | Brampton North | New Democratic | 1.25% | 2nd | ||
| 5 | Don Valley East | Liberal | 2.84% | 2nd | ||
| 6 | St. Catharines | New Democratic | 3.02% | 2nd | ||
| 7 | York South—Weston | New Democratic | 3.12% | 2nd | ||
| 8 | Oshawa | New Democratic | 3.15% | 2nd | ||
| 9 | Orléans | Liberal | 3.85% | 2nd | ||
| 10 | Essex | New Democratic | 4.97% | 2nd | ||
NDP targets
| Rank | Electoral District | Winning party 2018 | 2018 Margin | NDP in 2018 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa West—Nepean | PC | 0.35% | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Brantford—Brant | PC | 1.09% | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Sault Ste. Marie | PC | 1.289% | 2nd | ||
| 4 | Brampton West | PC | 1.291% | 2nd | ||
| 5 | Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | 1.60% | 2nd | ||
| 6 | Kitchener South—Hespeler | PC | 1.81% | 2nd | ||
| 7 | Scarborough—Rouge Park | PC | 2.29% | 2nd | ||
| 8 | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Liberal | 2.71% | 2nd | ||
| 9 | Peterborough—Kawartha | PC | 3.92% | 2nd | ||
| 10 | Cambridge | PC | 4.48% | 2nd | ||
Liberal targets
| Rank | Electoral District | Winning party 2018 | 2018 Margin | Liberal's place 2018 | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | New Democratic | 0.25% | 2nd | ||
| 2 | Eglinton—Lawrence | PC | 1.93% | 2nd | ||
| 3 | Toronto—St. Paul's | New Democratic | 2.57% | 2nd | ||
| 4 | Ottawa West—Nepean | PC | 3.52% | 3rd | ||
Notes
- Includes the Ontario Green Party.
References
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- "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford". Toronto Star. September 28, 2020.
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- "Progressive Conservative MPP who 'misrepresented' her COVID-19 vaccination status resigns from caucus". Retrieved 22 October 2021.
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- Risdon, Melanie (8 November 2021). "Hillier announces bid for Ontario premiership under PPC banner". Western Standard. Retrieved 8 November 2021.
- Rushowy, Kristin (8 November 2021). "MPP Randy Hillier apologizes for baselessly linking deaths to COVID-19 vaccinations". Northumberland News. Retrieved 8 November 2021.
- Devoy, Desmond (2021-12-03). "MPP Randy Hillier to head new, Ontario First Party". The Toronto Star. ISSN 0319-0781. Retrieved 2021-12-04.
- Herhalt, Chris (October 20, 2020). "Former Premier Kathleen Wynne not running again in 2022". cp24.com. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
- "Liberals in Don Valley West Nominate Stephanie Bowman as 2022 Ontario Liberal Party Candidate". Ontario Liberal Party. Retrieved 2021-10-21.
- Benzie, Robert (September 24, 2020). "MPP Jim Wilson won't seek re-election after ejection from PC caucus". thestar.com.
- Nanji, Sabrina (December 9, 2020). "'Not an option': Gila Martow won't run for PCs in 2022, whether or not she makes the jump to federal politics". politicstoday.news.
- "Windsor MPP Percy Hatfield won't run in next year's election, saying it's 'time for new voices'". CBC. July 30, 2021. Retrieved July 30, 2021.
- Doucet, Bill (August 25, 2021). "Kitchener South-Hespeler MPP Amy Fee will not seek re-election". The Record. Retrieved 1 October 2021.
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- Shreve, Ellwood (August 24, 2021). "Nicholls won't seek re-election following removal from PC caucus". Chatham-Kent This Week. Retrieved October 5, 2021.
- "Progressive Conservative MPP who 'misrepresented' her COVID-19 vaccination status resigns from caucus". Retrieved 22 October 2021.
- Kenny, Casey. "Breaking: Pettapiece won't seek re-election as MPP for Perth-Wellington". www.mystratfordnow.com. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
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