2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term, although no official statements have been released as of yet.[2]

2024 United States presidential election
November 5, 2024
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
2024

In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure
Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census
Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[6]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[7] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[8][9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[9][10][11]

Campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic
Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of December 2021, has killed over 800,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 410 Americans),[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[13]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected in 2020, and has stated he intends to run for re-election in 2024, which was later confirmed by Press Secretary Jen Psaki in November 2021, although no official statements have been released as of yet.[14] He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if re-elected. During late 2021, as President Biden was suffering from low approval ratings in the polls, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election.[15] In the event of this occurring, Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg were considered likely candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, having both run for president in 2020.[16][17]

Publicly expressed interest

As of December 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of December 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris has been discussed in the context of President Biden not seeking re-election.[19]

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. He was acquitted in his second impeachment trial in 2021 by the Senate, and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.[50][51] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the presidential nominee of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican presidential nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.

Publicly expressed interest

As of December 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of December 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Publicly expressed interest

As of December 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for the Libertarian presidential nomination, within the previous six months.

Publicly expressed interest

As of December 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Primary election polling

Democratic Party
Polls with Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Stacey
Abrams		 Joe
Biden		 Cory
Booker		 Pete
Buttigieg		 Kamala
Harris		 Michelle
Obama		 Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez		 Other Undecided
December 2, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 5% 36% 5% 3% 16% – 5% 10% –
Tip Insights December 1–4, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 4% 37% 3% 3% 16% – 4% 2% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – 4% 24% 2% 8% 13% 16% 5% 12% 16%
Zogby Analytics November 8–10, 2021 426 (LV) – 6% 40% 4% – 10% 20% – 12%[lower-alpha 2] 8%
YouGov/Yahoo News November 4–8, 2021 684 (A) – – 25% – 7% 14% – 8% 20%[lower-alpha 3] 31%
NPR-PBS NewsHouse-Marist October 18–22, 2021 469 (RV) – – 36% – – – – – 44% 20%
Morning Consult October 8–11, 2021 886 (RV) – – 83% – – – – – 13% 4%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 450 (RV) ± 4.6% – 60% – – – – – 39% 1%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 4] – – 57% – – – – – 22%[lower-alpha 5] 15%[lower-alpha 6]
Polls without Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Stacey
Abrams		 Cory
Booker		 Pete
Buttigieg		 Andrew
Cuomo		 Kamala
Harris		 Amy
Klobuchar		 Michelle
Obama		 Beto
O'Rourke		 Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez		 Andrew
Yang		 Other Undecided
Hill-HarrisX November 18–19, 2021 939 (RV) ± 3.2% – – – – 13% – 10% – – – 13% 36%
Echelon Insights November 12–18, 2021 458 (LV) – 6% 6% 8% – 29% 2% – – 5% – 25%[lower-alpha 7] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – 5% 3% 8% 2% 22% 5% 23% 3% 5% – 29% –
YouGov/Yahoo News October 19–21, 2021 671 (A) – 7% – 9% – 22% – – – 7% – 24%[lower-alpha 8] 31%
Echelon Insights October 15–19, 2021 533 (LV) – 5% 4% 9% – 23% 4% – – 5% – 28%[lower-alpha 9] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 473 (LV) – 5% 3% 9% 2% 29% 3% 18% 3% 7% – 7%[lower-alpha 10] 14%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 476 (LV) – 5% 4% 7% 2% 29% 3% 17% 3% 7% – 5%[lower-alpha 11] 17%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – 4% 5% 8% 4% 28% 2% 16% 2% 7% 4% 6%[lower-alpha 12] 14%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 697 (A) – 4% – 6% – 44% – – – 4% – 18%[lower-alpha 13] 24%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 463 (LV) – 5% 3% 4% 2% 31% 3% 19% 3% 5% 3% 6%[lower-alpha 14] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 459 (LV) – 4% 4% 6% 1% 35% 3% 16% 2% 7% 2% 9%[lower-alpha 15] 13%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 16] – – – 9% – 41% 5% – 4% 8% 3% 29%[lower-alpha 17] –
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 458 (LV) – – 4% 5% 2% 34% 4% 20% 2% 3% 4% 6%[lower-alpha 18] 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 443 (LV) – – 4% 7% 1% 28% 3% 23% 2% 8% 4% 6%[lower-alpha 19] 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 445 (LV) – – 3% 5% 5% 25% 2% 29% – 7% – 8%[lower-alpha 20] 18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% – 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% – 6% – 5%[lower-alpha 21] 23%
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) – – 2% 8% 8% 18% – 25% – 6% – 6%[lower-alpha 22] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% – 6% 9% 8% 3%[lower-alpha 23] –

Nationwide polling
Polls with Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tucker
Carlson		 Ted
Cruz		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Josh
Hawley		 Larry
Hogan		 Mike
Pence		 Mike
Pompeo		 Mitt
Romney		 Marco
Rubio		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump		 Donald
Trump Jr.		 Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – – 2% 15% 3% – – 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 55% – 6% 8%
Zogby Analytics November 8–10, 2021 371 (LV) – – 2% 7% 5% – – 12% 2% – 1% – 59% – 6%[lower-alpha 24] 4%
YouGov/Yahoo News November 4–8, 2021 559 (A) – 3% – 21% 5% – – 4% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[lower-alpha 25] 19%
Harvard/Harris October 26–28, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – – 10% – – – 9% – – – – 47% – 15% 19%
YouGov/Yahoo News October 19–21, 2021 629 (A) – 1% – 18% 4% 1% – 5% – – 2% 2% 41% – 2%[lower-alpha 26] 24%
Echelon Insights Archived October 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine October 15–19, 2021 476 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 66%[lower-alpha 27] – 31% 4%
– – 22% – – – – – – – – 62%[lower-alpha 27] – – 16%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 463 (LV) – – 3% 10% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[lower-alpha 27] – 10%[lower-alpha 28] 3%
Morning Consult October 8–11, 2021 803 (RV) – – 3% 12% 3% 0% 0% 12% 0% 3% 3% 1% 47% 6% 6%[lower-alpha 29] 4%
Echelon Insights September 17–23, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[lower-alpha 27] – 32% 9%
John Bolton Super PAC September 16–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% – 5% 25% 6% 1% – 3% – – 2% 2% 26% – 10%[lower-alpha 30] 20%
Harvard/Harris September 15–16, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – – 9% 3% – – 13% – – 3% – 58% – 0% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 456 (LV) – – 3% 8% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 2% 1% 59%[lower-alpha 27] – 7%[lower-alpha 31] 4%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 2% 10% 7% 1% – 6% – 3% – – 67% – 5%[lower-alpha 32] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 3% 11% 4% – – 8% 1% 3% 3% 0% 54%[lower-alpha 27] – 7%[lower-alpha 33] 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 518 (A) – 2% – 13% 4% 0% – 3% – – 1% 1% 58% – 1%[lower-alpha 34] 17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 2% 19% 3% 0% 1% 8% 0% 3% 1% 1% 47%[lower-alpha 27] - 2%[lower-alpha 35] 13%
– – 31% – – – – – – – – 58%[lower-alpha 27] – – 11%
John Bolton Super PAC July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – – 5% 13% 5% 0% – 6% – – 3% 0% 46% – 22% –
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[lower-alpha 27] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 4% 9% 3% – – 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[lower-alpha 27] – 8%[lower-alpha 36] 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 378 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 65% – 19%[lower-alpha 37] 16%
Quinnipiac May 18–24, 2021 ~290 (A)[lower-alpha 38] – – – – – – – – – – – – 66% – 30%[lower-alpha 39] 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 3% 8% 5% – – 10% 1% 2% 0% 1% 57%[lower-alpha 27] – 7%[lower-alpha 40] 7%
Echelon Insights May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 63%[lower-alpha 27] – 31% 6%
Morning Consult/Politico May 14–17, 2021 782 (RV) ± 2% – 4% 8% 4% 0% 0% 13% 1% 4% 1% 2% 48% 7% 9%[lower-alpha 41] –
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 348 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 68% – 22%[lower-alpha 42] 10%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 43] – –[lower-alpha 27] – – – – – – – – – – 62% – 27%[lower-alpha 44] 11%[lower-alpha 45]
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[lower-alpha 27] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 1% 3% 7% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[lower-alpha 27] – 8%[lower-alpha 46] 9%
PEM Management Corporation Apr 3–7, 2021 494 (LV) – – 7% 9% 9% – – 6% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[lower-alpha 47] –
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 60%[lower-alpha 27] – 30% 10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 3% 7% 6% 1% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 0% 51%[lower-alpha 27] - 3%[lower-alpha 48] 12%
– – – – – – – – – – – 57%[lower-alpha 49] – 16%[lower-alpha 50] 27%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 5% 4% 3% – – 8% – 3% 1% – 54%[lower-alpha 27] – 9%[lower-alpha 51] 10%
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 5% – 7% 2% – 18% – – – 2% 52%[lower-alpha 27] – 13%[lower-alpha 52] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 55%[lower-alpha 27] – 32% 14%
Morning Consult/Politico Feb 14–15, 2021 645 (RV) ± 4% – 4% – 6% 1% 1% 12% 2% 4% 2% 1% 54% 6% 10%[lower-alpha 53] –
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[lower-alpha 54] – – – – – – – – – – – – 48%[lower-alpha 27] – 40% 11%
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[lower-alpha 55] ± 3.09% – 6% 2% 7% 1% 6% 13% 2% 19% 3% 3% 29%[lower-alpha 27] 2% 6%[lower-alpha 56] –
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 41% 1%[lower-alpha 57]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 702 (RV) – – 7% – 6% 1% 0% 18% 1% 5% 2% 1% 40% 6% 15%[lower-alpha 58] –
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) – 3% 5% 1% 3% – – 11% 1% 4% 1% 1% 56% – 5%[lower-alpha 59] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – – – 71% – 21%[lower-alpha 60] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 4% 2% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[lower-alpha 27] – 6%[lower-alpha 61] 15%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% – 4% – 4% 1% 0% 12% – 4% 2% 1% 53% 8% 11%[lower-alpha 62] –
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% – – – – – – – – – – – 75% – 25% –
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[lower-alpha 63] ± 2.5% 2% 6% – 7% 1% – 19% – – 4% 2% 35% 11% 4%[lower-alpha 64] –
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[lower-alpha 65] ± 3.09% 4% 7% – 4% – – 22% 2% 8% 5% – 45%[lower-alpha 27] – 5%[lower-alpha 66] –
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[lower-alpha 67] – – – – – – – – – – – – 38% – 43%[lower-alpha 68] –
Polls without Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tucker
Carlson		 Ted
Cruz		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Josh
Hawley		 Larry
Hogan		 Mike
Pence		 Mike
Pompeo		 Mitt
Romney		 Marco
Rubio		 Tim
Scott		 Donald
Trump Jr.		 Other Undecided
Harvard/Harris October 26–28, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – 12% 21% – – – 23% – – – – – 0% 43%
Echelon Insights Archived October 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine October 15–19, 2021 476 (RV) – 2% 8% 22% 5% 0% 0% 8% 2% 3% 4% 2% 13% 8%[lower-alpha 69] 22%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 463 (LV) – – 5% 24% 5% – – 14% 1% 5% 2% 2% 18% 11%[lower-alpha 70] 13%
Echelon Insights September 17–23, 2021 479 (RV) – 2% 9% 22% 6% 1% 1% 15% 2% 4% 2% 1% 9% 11%[lower-alpha 71] 21%
Harvard/Harris September 15–16, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – 14% 20% – – – 32% – – – – – 0% 38%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 456 (LV) – – 7% 22% 4% – – 15% 2% 4% 2% 2% 19% 12%[lower-alpha 72] 11%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 13% 32% 10% 6% – 24% – 6% – – – 9%[lower-alpha 73] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 9% 23% 4% – – 11% 2% 4% 4% 1% 12% 16%[lower-alpha 74] 14%
Echelon Insights July 19–23, 2021 421 (RV) – 1% 9% 32% 4% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 75] 17% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 76] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 7% 39% 4% 0% 1% 15% 1% 3% – 2% – 4%[lower-alpha 77] 24%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – 1% 6% 21% 6% 0%[lower-alpha 78] 0%[lower-alpha 79] 14% 0%[lower-alpha 80] 4% 3% 2% 7% 7%[lower-alpha 81] 26%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 6% 24% 4% – – 19% 1% 5% 2% 1% 15% 13%[lower-alpha 82] 11%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 12% 18% 5% – – 19% 2% 3% 1% 2% 13% 13%[lower-alpha 83] 12%
Echelon Insights May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – 2% 9% 22% 5% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 84] 14% 1% 4% 1% 3% 6% 9%[lower-alpha 85] 19%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 86] – – 15% 35% 6% 1% – 10% – 10% – – – 21%[lower-alpha 87] –
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – 2% 8% 20% 6% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 88] 16% 1% 4% 2% 0%[lower-alpha 89] 9% 3%[lower-alpha 90] 28%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 3% 10% 14% 3% – – 19% 2% 3% 3% 1% 15% 13%[lower-alpha 91] 14%
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – 4% 5% 17% 4% – – 16% 4% 3% 2% – 3% 7%[lower-alpha 92] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 13% 17% 8% 2% 1% 19% 4% 5% 4% 1% – 7%[lower-alpha 93] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 9% 9% 5% – – 15% – 6% 2% – 21% 16%[lower-alpha 94] 17%
RMG Research/Just the News Feb 25–27, 2021 363 (RV) – 8% 18% 21% 10% 2% – – 9% – – – – 33%[lower-alpha 95] –
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 16% – 10% 6% – 41% – – – 7% – 19%[lower-alpha 96] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – 1% 10% 8% 6% ≤1% 1% 21% 1% 4% ≤1% ≤1% 8% 12%[lower-alpha 97] 26%
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[lower-alpha 98] – 2% 8% 2% 9% 0% 0% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 10%[lower-alpha 99] 30%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[lower-alpha 100] ± 3.09% – 9% 3% 8% 2% 7% 22% 3% 20% 4% 3% 11% 8%[lower-alpha 101] –
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 7% 2% 6% – – 20% 1% 5% 3% 2% 20% 13%[lower-alpha 102] 22%
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[lower-alpha 103] ± 3.1% 6% 14% – 6% – – 44% 3% 11% 6% – – 7%[lower-alpha 104] –
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) – 2% 5% 2% 8% – – 30% – 5% 2% 1% 20% 5%[lower-alpha 105] 21%
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) – 2% 4% – 7% 0% 1% 26% – – 5% 1% 12% 11%[lower-alpha 106] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% – 11% – – 31% 3% 9% 5% – 17% 9%[lower-alpha 107] –

Statewide polling
Statewide polling
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Marco
Rubio		 Ivanka
Trump		 Donald
Trump Jr.		 Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% – 21%
North Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ted
Cruz		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Mitt
Romney		 Marco
Rubio		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3% 6% – 3% 2% 76%[lower-alpha 27] 5% 6%
9% 9% 48% 9% 3% – 4% 18%
South Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
Trafalgar (R) Mar 25–29, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.99% 64% 11%[lower-alpha 108] 25%[lower-alpha 109]
Utah primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Liz
Cheney		 Chris
Christie		 Ted
Cruz		 Ron
DeSantis		 Nikki
Haley		 Mike
Pence		 Mitt
Romney		 Marco
Rubio		 Donald
Trump		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Nov 5–15, 2021 333 (RV) ± 5.4% 1% 1% 3% 7% 4% 9% 20% 1% 43% 1% 10%
2% 1% 8% 18% 5% 13% 21% 1% – 1% 20%

General election polling
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Undecided
[lower-alpha 110]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics November 3 – December 2, 2021 December 6, 2021 41.2% 45.4% 13.4% Trump +4.2
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights Dec 9–13, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 47% 44% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 45% 48% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Nov 22–23, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 45% 23%
Wall Street Journal Nov 16–22, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 46% 45% 9%
Echelon Insights Nov 12–18, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 45% 45% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 35% 41% 24%
Marquette Law School Nov 1–10, 2021 1,004 (A) – 42% 34% 24%
YouGov/Yahoo News Nov 4–8, 2021 1,673 (A) – 43% 39% 18%
Suffolk University Nov 3–5, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College Nov 3–4, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 31, 2021 1,217 (LV) – 42% 42% 16%
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (LV) – 45% 46% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News Oct 19–21, 2021 1,704 (A) – 43% 40% 17%
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 48% 42% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 17, 2021 1,138 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College Oct 13–17, 2021 745 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 40% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2021 1,150 (LV) – 43% 41% 16%
Echelon Insights Sep 17–23, 2021 1,005 (RV) – 50% 39% 11%
Rasmussen Reports Sep 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 19–20, 2021 1,137 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates Sep 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 47% 50% 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 4–5, 2021 1,148 (LV) – 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Aug 16–17, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 20%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 1,552 (A) – 47% 37% 16%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) – 47% 35% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) – 46% 36% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) – 48% 36% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) – 45% 28% 27%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Apr 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 42% 12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Andrew
Yang
Forward		 Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 44% 40% 5% 11%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 43% 36% 21%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 36% 16%
Echelon Insights April 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 45% 28% 27%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 41% 25% 34%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Nikki
Haley
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,107 (A) – 44% 19% 37%
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ted
Cruz
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 46% 24% 30%
Joe Biden vs. Mitt Romney
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Mitt
Romney
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 23% 35%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 41% 50% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 42% 50% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 33% 42% 25%
McLaughlin & Associates Oct 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 4%
Rasmussen Reports Sep 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 52% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates Sep 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 47% 49% 4%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 47% 40% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Mike
Pence
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 45% 36% 19%
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 42% 37% 21%
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 40% 42% 18%
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 43% 31% 26%
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pompeo
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Mike
Pompeo
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 41% 41% 18%
Kamala Harris vs. Tim Scott
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Tim
Scott
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 39% 42% 19%
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 37% 48% 15%

Timeline
Further information: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 8%; Gavin Newsom with 4%
  3. Bernie Sanders with 12%; Elizabeth Warren with 8%
  4. Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  5. "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
  6. "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
  7. Bernie Sanders with 16%; Elizabeth Warren with 6%; Gavin Newsom with 2%; Joe Manchin with 1%; "Someone else", Andy Beshear, Tulsi Gabbard, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
  8. Bernie Sanders with 12%; Elizabeth Warren with 8%; Sherrod Brown with 4%
  9. Bernie Sanders with 16%; Elizabeth Warren with 6%; Gavin Newsom with 3%; "Someone else", Tulsi Gabbard and Joe Manchin with 1%; Andy Beshear, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
  10. Joe Manchin and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
  11. Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine and Ilhan Omar with 0%
  12. John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
  13. Bernie Sanders with 10%; Elizabeth Warren and Tim Kaine with 6%; Sherrod Brown with 2%
  14. John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  15. Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  16. Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  17. "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
  18. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  19. John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
  20. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  21. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  22. John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  23. Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  24. "Someone else" with 4%; Greg Abbott with 2%
  25. Glenn Youngkin with 1%
  26. Tom Cotton And Kristi Noem with 1%
  27. Standard VI response
  28. Candace Owens with 3%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, Candace Owens and Rick Scott with 1%
  29. Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  30. Chris Christie with 7%; Kristi Noem with 3%
  31. Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Candace Owens and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  32. "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  33. John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
  34. Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  35. Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  36. Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  37. "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
  38. 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
  39. "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
  40. Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  41. Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  42. "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
  43. Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  44. "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
  45. "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
  46. John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  47. Kristi Noem with 1%
  48. Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  49. On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
  50. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
  51. Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  52. "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  53. Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  54. GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  55. Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[105]
  56. Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
  57. Listed as "Skipped"
  58. Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  59. John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  60. "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  61. John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  62. Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  63. 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  64. Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
  65. Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  66. John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  67. Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  68. Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  69. Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 2%; "Someone else", Greg Abbott, Chris Christie and Tom Cotton with 1%; Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  70. Candace Owens with 5%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  71. "Someone else" with 3%; Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott and Marjorie Taylor Greene with 0%
  72. Candace Owens with 5%; Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  73. "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  74. Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  75. No voters
  76. "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  77. Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
  78. No voters
  79. No voters
  80. No voters
  81. "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
  82. Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  83. Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  84. No voters
  85. Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
  86. Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  87. "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
  88. No voters
  89. No voters
  90. Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
  91. Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
  92. Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
  93. Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  94. Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
  95. "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
  96. "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
  97. Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
  98. GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  99. Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  100. Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[105]
  101. Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
  102. Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
  103. Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  104. Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  105. John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  106. "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  107. Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  108. "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
  109. "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%
  110. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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