Longtermism

Philosopher William MacAskill defines longtermism as "the view that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time".[3] He distinguishes it from strong longtermism, "the view that positively influencing the longterm future is the key moral priority of our time".[3]

In his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, philosopher Toby Ord describes longtermism as follows: "longtermism (...) is especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future. It takes seriously the fact that our own generation is but one page in a much longer story, and that our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story. Working to safeguard humanity's potential is one avenue for such a lasting impact and there may be others too."[4] In addition, Ord notes that "longtermism is animated by a moral re-orientation toward the vast future that existential risks threaten to foreclose."[4]

The term "longtermism" was coined around 2017 by Oxford philosophers William MacAskill and Toby Ord, and the view draws inspiration from the work of Nick Bostrom, Nick Beckstead, and others.[3]

Longtermist ideas have given rise to a community of individuals and organizations working to protect the interests of future generations.[5] Organizations working on longtermist topics include Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk,[6] Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute[7] and Global Priorities Institute, 80,000 Hours,[8] Open Philanthropy,[9] the Future of Life Institute,[10] and others.

Researchers studying longtermism believe that among the most valuable ways to improve the long-term future are efforts to mitigate existential risks and to bring about other positive "trajectory changes".[11]

An existential risk is "a risk that threatens the destruction of humanity’s longterm potential",[12] including risks which cause human extinction or permanent societal collapse. Examples of these risks include nuclear war, natural and engineered pandemics, extreme climate change, stable global totalitarianism, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and nanotechnology.[13] Reducing any of these risks may significantly improve the future over long timescales by increasing the number and quality of future lives.[11][14]

Existential risks are extreme examples of what researchers call a "trajectory change".[11] However, there might be other ways to positively influence how the future will unfold. Some people think that increasing economic growth counts as a positive trajectory change since it will make future generations wealthier.[15] Others think that improving institutions like national governments or international governance bodies could bring about a positive trajectory change.[16]

One objection to longtermism is that it relies on predictions of the effects of our actions over very long time horizons, which is difficult at best and impossible at worst.[17] In response to this challenge, researchers interested in longtermism have sought to identify "value lock in" events—events, such as human extinction, which we may influence in the near-term but that will have very long-lasting, predictable future effects.[18]

Another concern is that longtermism may lead to deprioritizing more immediate issues. For example, considering humanity's future in terms of the next 10,000 or 10 million years might lead to downplaying the short-term economic effects of climate change.[19]

• Effective altruism
• Intergenerational equity
• Population ethics
• Social discount rate

• Greaves, Hilary; Macaskill, William (2021). The case for strong longtermism. Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.
• Tarsney, Christian (2019). The epistemic challenge to longtermism. Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.
• Beckstead, Nick (2013). On the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future (Thesis). Rutgers University.
• Cargill, Natalie; John, Tyler M., eds. (2021). The Long View: Essays on Policy, Philanthropy, and the Long-term Future (PDF). London: FIRST. ISBN 978-0-9957281-8-9.
• Cowen, Tyler (2018). Stubborn Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals. San Francisco: Stripe Press. ISBN 978-1-73226-513-4.
• Christian, David (2011). Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History. University of California Press.

• Longtermism.com, Online introduction and resource compilation on longtermism

• Todd, Benjamin (2017). "Why our impact in millions of years could be what most matters". 80,000 Hours.
• Moorhouse, Fin (2021). "Introduction to Longtermism". Effectivealtruism.org.
• Klein, Ezra (2021). "Transcript: Ezra Klein interviews Holden Karnofsky". The New York Times.