Next Castilian-Leonese regional election

The next Castilian-Leonese regional election will be held no later than Saturday, 1 July 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 81 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Next Castilian-Leonese regional election
No later than 1 July 2023
All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
41 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Luis Tudanca Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Francisco Igea
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 18 October 2014 1 April 2017 11 March 2019
Leader's seat Burgos Salamanca Valladolid
Last election 35 seats, 34.8% 29 seats, 31.5% 12 seats, 14.9%
Current seats 35 29 11
Seats needed 6 12 30
 
Leader Pablo Fernández Fátima Pinacho Luis Mariano Santos
Party Unidas Podemos Vox UPL
Leader since 14 February 2015 4 February 2021 26 March 2015
Leader's seat León Valladolid León
Last election 2 seats, 7.3%[lower-alpha 1] 1 seat, 5.5% 1 seat, 2.0%
Current seats 2 1 1
Seats needed 39 40 N/A
 
Leader Pedro Pascual Muñoz
Party XAV
Leader since January 2019
Leader's seat Ávila
Last election 1 seat, 0.7%
Current seats 1
Seats needed N/A
Incumbent President

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
PP

The previous election had seen a victory for the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) for the first time since 1983, but the ruling People's Party (PP) was able to elect its candidate, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, as new regional president by forming a coalition with the liberal Citizens (Cs). Despite this arrangement, tensions soon began to emerge between the two governing partners over the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. In March 2021, a PSOE-tabled vote of no confidence was defeated, but it indirectly led to the defection of one Cs legislator to the opposition, leaving the PP–Cs government in minority status.[1] Tensions between the two parties continued to grow, and by autumn 2021 it was commented that Fernández Mañueco had grown tired of the coalition and was tentatively planning a snap election to be held at some point between the winter of 2021 and the spring of 2022, in order to avert the risk of the PSOE tabling another motion of no confidence that could be possibly supported by Cs, as well as to take advantage of the PP's "honeymoon" in opinion polls following the Madrilenian election in May.[2][3][4]

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[5]

Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[6] All members of the Cortes of Castile and León are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[5][7]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[8]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree shall be published in the BOCYL no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 1 July 2023.[5][7][9]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]

By 2021, the relationship between the two ruling coalition partners, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) had become strained to the point that President Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was considering to call a snap election for late in the year or early 2022, taking advantage of the momentum gained by the PP in opinion polls as a result of its victory in the 2021 Madrilenian regional election. Mañueco was also weary that the Cs internal crisis, which had seen a number of defections from the party, could see a successful motion of no confidence being mounted on him once the PSOE was be able to table a new censure motion in March 2022, one year after a previous, unsuccessful one.[2] In October 2021, it was hinted that Mañueco was considering an election to be held on either 28 November or 12 December,[10] though it later transpired that an election in the spring of 2022 was more likely.[11] Speculation on an early election in Andalusia,[4] coupled with possible snap elections in other regions—such as Aragon or the Valencian Community[12]—initially hinted at a possible simultaneous electoral call,[13] but Andalusian president Juan Manuel Moreno's announcement on 30 November that an election in Andalusia would not be held sooner than June 2022 meant that any prospective Castilian-Leonese snap election would be held earlier.[14]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition[15]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 35 35
People's Parliamentary Group PP 29 29
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 11 11
Mixed Group Podemos 2 6
Vox 1
UPL 1
XAV 1
INDEP 1[lower-alpha 2]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[7][9]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Luis Tudanca Social democracy 34.84% 35 N [16]
PP
List
 Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Conservatism
Christian democracy		 31.50% 29 Y
Cs
List
 Francisco Igea Liberalism 14.94% 12 Y
Unidas
Podemos
List
 Pablo Fernández Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 7.29%[lower-alpha 1] 2 N [17]
Vox
List
 Fátima Pinacho Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 5.50% 1 N [18]
UPL
List
 Luis Mariano Santos Regionalism
Autonomism		 2.04% 1 N
XAV
List
 Pedro Pascual Muñoz Regionalism 0.69% 1 N
EV
List
  • Ávila Resists (Ávila Resiste)
  • Burgos Roots (Burgos Enraíza)
  • León Roars (León Ruge)
  • Segovia Exists (Segovia Existe)
  • Soria Now! (Soria ¡Ya!)
TBD Localism
Ruralism		 New party N [19]
[20]
[21]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 41 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PPSO Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1] 2–12 Nov 2021 1,000 ? 31.1
30/31		 40.9
38/40		 6.7
1		 8.6
6/7		 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] 2.3
1/2		 0.9
1		 – 6.1
2		 9.8
Metroscopia/Ical[p 2] 21–25 Oct 2021 1,000 ? 30.0
27/29		 36.8
34/37		 5.3
1		 14.3
10/11		 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] 2.7
2		 0.6
0/1		 – 5.0
2/3		 6.8
Sigma Dos/RTVCyL[p 3] 11–15 Jun 2021 1,200 ? 29.5
28		 43.8
43		 3.5
0		 10.0
7		 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] 2.2
1		 0.5
0		 – 6.5
2		 14.3
GAD3/El Norte de Castilla[p 4][p 5] 22–31 May 2021 1,000 ? 28.8
27/28		 43.6
43		 5.6
1		 9.7
7		 4.6
1		 1.5
0		 2.3
1/2		 0.6
0		 – – 14.8
SyM Consulting/La Nueva Crónica[p 6][p 7] 23–26 Mar 2021 5,588 68.8 35.7
32/35		 36.2
31/37		 5.4
1/4		 11.7
7/11		 2.9
0		 – 1.6
1		 0.8
0/1		 0.3
0/1		 – 0.5
Sigma Dos/RTVCyL[p 8] 2–9 Dec 2020 3,300 ? 31.7
28/32		 37.1
34/38		 7.4
3		 12.1
7/9		 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] 1.4
1		 0.3
0		 – 7.1
2/4		 5.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9] 15 Sep 2020 ? ? 36.2
37		 38.2
38		 7.9
4		 6.0
1		 4.7
0		 0.8
0		 2.3
1		 0.7
0		 – – 2.0
Sigma Dos/RTVCyL[p 10][p 11] 14–19 May 2020 1,200 ? 33.4 36.6 7.2 10.5 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] – – – 6.9 3.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 12][p 13] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 34.5
36		 38.8
40		 7.5
2		 7.1
2		 4.4
0		 1.5
0		 2.1
1		 0.5
0		 – – 3.3
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 66.6 31.3
(29)		 31.6
(31)		 7.6
(4)		 16.6
(14)		 [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 3] 0.7
(0)		 0.4
(0)		 0.1
(0)		 9.3
(3)		 0.3
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 65.8 34.8
35		 31.5
29		 14.9
12		 5.5
1		 5.0
2		 2.3
0		 2.0
1		 0.7
1		 0.3
0		 – 3.3

Notes
  1. Results for Podemos–Equo (5.00%, 2 seats) and IU–Anticapitalistas–PCAS/TC–ALTER (2.29%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
  2. María Montero, former Cs legislator.[1]
  3. Within Unidas Podemos.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "Mañueco, a un paso de conseguir la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 November 2021.
  2. "El PP ganaría las elecciones con entre 34 y 37 procuradores y UPL obtendría un segundo representante". Leónoticias (in Spanish). 4 November 2021.
  3. "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 25/06/2021: PODEMOS-EQUO 6,5% (2), PSOE 29,5% (28), UPL 2,2% (1), Cs 3,5%, XAV 0,5%, PP 43,8% (43), VOX 10,0% (7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 June 2021.
  4. "El PP recupera la mayoría absoluta". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 6 June 2021.
  5. "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta GAD3 06/06/2021: PODEMOS-EQUO 1, PSOE 27/28, UPL 1/2, Cs 1, PP 43, VOX 7". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 June 2021.
  6. "Estimación Abril 2021. Castilla y León. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 31 March 2021.
  7. "El PP gana por la mínima en la Junta y Vox se dispara tras la moción de censura". La Nueva Crónica (in Spanish). 31 March 2021.
  8. "El PP ganaría las elecciones y se quedaría a tres procuradores de una mayoría que le daría C´s". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 16 December 2020.
  9. "EP (15S): Ciudadanos se crece en Castilla y León y sería decisivo para el próximo gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 September 2020.
  10. "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones y dependería de Vox para formar gobierno en Castilla y León". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  11. "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones en Castilla y León con el 36.6 % de los votos". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 28 May 2020.
  12. "EP (17My): Castilla y León – subidón de Mañueco, que roza la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  13. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
Other
  1. "La diputada de Ciudadanos María Montero abandona su Grupo Parlamentario a 3 días de la moción de censura" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 19 March 2021. Retrieved 19 March 2021.
  2. Cornejo, Laura (5 September 2021). "La ratonera de Mañueco: adelantar elecciones en Castilla y León o enfrentarse a una nueva moción de censura que le arrebate el gobierno". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  3. Cornejo, Laura; Vega, Antonio (1 November 2021). "El Gobierno de coalición de Castilla y León: dos posibles mociones de censura y sospechas de traición entre PP y Ciudadanos". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 November 2021.
  4. Dávila, Carlos (5 November 2021). "Persistente runrún electoral". El Día de Valladolid (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León". Organic Law No. 14 of 30 November 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  6. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  7. "Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León". Law No. 3 of 30 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  8. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  9. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  10. Cornejo, Laura (1 October 2021). "Tambores de ruptura del Gobierno y adelanto electoral en Castilla y León". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  11. Ramos, F. (4 October 2021). "Mañueco aplaza el adelanto electoral en Castilla y León". Diario de Castilla y León (in Spanish). Valladolid. Retrieved 5 October 2021.
  12. Alonso Giménez, Ángel (6 November 2021). "El botón rojo electoral de Lambán: tres motivos para adelantar elecciones y otros tres en contra". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  13. Rodríguez, Antonio (11 September 2021). "El PP buscará desgastar a Sánchez en marzo con comicios en Andalucía y Castilla y León". Voz Pópuli (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  14. Rubio, Mariela (3 December 2021). "El PP se prepara para unas elecciones en Castilla y León antes de las andaluzas" (in Spanish). Madrid: Cadena SER. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  15. "Parliamentary groups". www.ccyl.es (in Spanish). Cortes de Castilla y León. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  16. "Tudanca, reelegido secretario general del PSOE de Castilla y León". Diario de Castilla y León (in Spanish). Valladolid. 20 September 2021. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  17. "Podemos e Izquierda Unida de Castilla y León confluirán como Unidas Podemos en las próximas autonómicas". Diario de Castilla y León (in Spanish). 22 May 2021. Retrieved 29 November 2021.
  18. "Fátima Pinacho sustituye a García-Conde como portavoz de Vox en las Cortes". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 4 February 2021. Retrieved 7 March 2021.
  19. Camazón, Alba (14 November 2021). "Las plataformas por la España Vaciada buscan revolucionar el mapa político de Castilla y León". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 November 2021.
  20. "La España Vaciada se prepara por si hay adelanto electoral en Castilla y León". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Europa Press. 14 November 2021. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
  21. Ondarra, Marcos (16 November 2021). "España Vaciada concurrirá a las elecciones de Castilla y León y Andalucía como ensayo para las generales". El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 November 2021.
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