2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election

The Next Schleswig-Holstein state election will be held on 8 May 2022 to elect the 20th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. The current government is coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Minister-President Daniel Günther.

2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election

8 May 2022

All 69 seats in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein (plus overhang and leveling seats)
35+ seats needed for a majority
 
Green
Leader Daniel Günther Serpil Midyatli Ann-Kathrin Tranziska
& Steffen Regis
Party CDU SPD Green
Leader's seat Eckernförde List
Last election 25 seats, 32.0% 21 seats, 27.3% 10 seats, 12.9%

 
AfD
SSW
Leader Heiner Garg Vacant Flemming Meyer
Party FDP AfD SSW
Leader's seat
Last election 9 seats, 11.5% 5 seats, 5.9% 3 seats, 3.3%

Incumbent Minister-President and Government

Daniel Günther (CDU)
CDUGreenFDP


Election date

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. The election must be held in or before June 2022.[1]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 35 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 34 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 69 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold, and fail to win at least one constituency, are ineligible to receive seats. Parties representing the Danish minority of Southern Schleswig, such as the South Schleswig Voters' Association, are exempt from the threshold.[2]

Background

In the previous election held on 7 May 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 32.0% of votes cast, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The SPD lost three points and placed second with 27.3% of votes. The Greens won 12.9% (–0.3pp), the FDP won 11.5% (+3.3pp), and the SSW won 3.3% (–1.3pp). The AfD contested its first election in Schleswig-Holstein, winning 5.9%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens and SSW since 2012, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the Greens and FDP, and Daniel Günther became Minister-President.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 19th Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Daniel Günther 32.0%
25 / 73
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Serpil Midyatli 27.3%
21 / 73
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Ann-Kathrin Tranziska
Steffen Regis
12.9%
10 / 73
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Heiner Garg 11.5%
9 / 73
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Vacant 5.9%
5 / 73
SSW South Schleswig Voter Federation
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband
Danish and Frisian minority interests Flemming Meyer 3.3%
3 / 73

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD Grüne FDP AfD Linke SSW Others Lead
INSA 15–22 Nov 2021 1,001 21 28 18 14 7 4 3 5 7
Wahlkreisprognose 14–24 Oct 2021 945 23 29 22 14 3 2 4 3 6
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 22.0 28.0 18.3 12.5 6.8 3.6 3.2 5.6 6.0
Infratest dimap 21–26 May 2021 1,220 28 15 27 11 6 4 3 6 1
INSA 10–17 May 2021 1,000 25 21 27 11 6 3 3 4 2
Wahlkreisprognose 21–30 Mar 2021 28 19 29 11 3 3 3.5 3.5 1
INSA 16–23 Nov 2020 1,002 33 20 24 8 6 3 3 3 9
INSA 13–20 Jan 2020 1,000 28 20 26 9 7 3 3 4 2
2019 European election 26 May 2019 26.2 17.1 29.1 5.9 7.4 3.7 N/A 10.6 2.9
INSA 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 1,002 30 20 22 9 7 5 3 4 8
Infratest dimap 12–18 Apr 2018 1,002 34 22 18 8 6 6 3 3 12
2017 state election 7 May 2017 32.0 27.3 12.9 11.5 5.9 3.8 3.3 2.3 4.7

References

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