Next Thai general election

General elections are expected to be held in Thailand no later than 23 March 2023.[1]

Next Thai general election
No later than 23 March 2023
All 500 seats in the House of Representatives
251 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
PPRP
PTP
Candidate TBD TBA Pita Limjaroenrat
Party Palang Pracharat Pheu Thai Move Forward
Last election 23.34%, 116 seats 21.92%, 136 seats 17.34%, 81 seats[lower-alpha 1]
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Candidate Sudarat Keyuraphan Jurin Laksanawisit Anutin Charnvirakul
Party Thai Sang Thai Democrat Bhumjaithai
Last election New 10.92%, 53 seats 10.33%, 51 seats
  Seventh party Eighth party
 
Candidate Korn Chatikavanij Sereepisuth Temeeyaves
Party Kla Party Thai Liberal
Last election New 2.29%, 10 seats
Prime Minister before election

Prayut Chan-o-cha
Independent

 Prime Minister-designate

TBD

Politics of Thailand
Constitution
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Vajiralongkorn (Rama X)
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Prayut Chan-o-cha

Prawit Wongsuwan (PPRP)
Wissanu Krea-ngam
Anutin Charnvirakul (BJT)
Jurin Laksanawisit (D)
Don Pramudwinai
Supattanapong Punmeechaow

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Chuan Leekpai (D)

Pornpetch Wichitcholchai

Pornpetch Wichitcholchai

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Singsuk Singpai
Supachai Somcharoen

Chuan Leekpai (D)

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Supachai Phosu (BJT)

Sompong Amornwiwat (PTP)
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Electoral system

Under the 2017 constitution drafted under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO—the military junta in power from 2014 to 2019), the 500 members of the House of Representatives are elected using a form of mixed-member proportional representation, in which voters cast a single vote. 350 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 150 being levelling seats, allocated to ensure parties receive a number of seats proportionate to their national vote total.[2] As in the preceding 2019 election, the parliament's vote for Prime Minister will take place in a joint session with the 250-seat senate, according to the constitution's provisional terms. As the term of the NCPO-appointed senate lasts until 2024, it is expected to exert influence into this election as well.[3]

2021 restoration of parallel voting system

On 10 September 2021, a joint session of both houses of parliament voted by a margin of 472 to 33 (with 187 abstentions) to restore the pre-2017 parallel voting system, with 400 seats elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, an increase of 50, and reduced the number of party-list lawmakers to 100 from 150 (retaining a total of 500 seats for the lower house). Unlike the current system which meant only one vote was cast by each voter to determine both constituency and leveling seats, the earlier system of casting two ballots - one for a constituency candidate in 400 seats and another for a political party list was restored for the 100 seats. The reform is subject to approval by King Vajiralongkorn.[4] However, the change was criticised by smaller parties as the system makes it harder for such parties to win seats, and the change is likely to benefit the ruling Palang Pracharat Party and the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

Opinion polls

Preferred party
Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Pheu Thai Democrat Palang Pracharat Move Forward[lower-alpha 2] Thai Sang Thai No party Others Lead
20-23 September 2021 NIDA 2,018 22.50% 7.78% 9.51% 15.11% 1.93% 35.68% 8.03% 13.18%
11-16 June 2021 NIDA 2,515 19.48% 9.54% 10.70% 14.51% 2.47% 32.68% 10.62% 13.20%
24 April 2021 - 1 May 2021 Superpoll 1,224 9.50% N/A 37.90% 11.30% 10.00% N/A 31.30% 26.60%
23-26 March 2021 NIDA 2,522 22.13% 7.10% 16.65% 13.48% N/A 29.82% 10.82% 7.69%
20-23 December 2020 NIDA 2,533 23.61% 7.46% 17.80% 14.92% N/A 26.49% 9.72% 2.88%
18-23 September 2020 NIDA 2,527 19.39% 7.44% 12.39% 12.70% N/A 41.59% 6.49% 22.20%
22–24 June 2020 NIDA 2,517 20.70% 7.75% 15.73% 13.47% N/A 32.38% 32.40% 11.70%
18–20 December 2019 NIDA 2,511 19.95% 10.83% 16.69% 30.27% N/A 13.46% 22.30% 11.0%

Preferred Prime Minister
Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Prayut Korn Sudarat Pita Sereepisuth No Preference Others Lead
25 - 28 October 2021 Suan Dusit 1,186 21.27% N/A 19.35% 28.67% N/A N/A 15.78% 7.4%
20-23 September 2021 NIDA 2,018 17.54% 2.58% 11.15% 11.05% 9.07% 32.61% 16.00% 15.07%
11-16 June 2021 NIDA 2,515 19.32% 3.62% 13.64% 5.45% 8.71% 37.65% 11.61% 18.33%
1-12 June 2021 Superpoll 1,400 30.80% N/A 14.90% 4.80% N/A 25.60% 23.90% 15.90%
24 April 2021 - 1 May 2021 Superpoll 1,224 42.60% N/A 23.80% 9.60% N/A N/A 24.00% 18.80%
23-26 March 2021 NIDA 2,522 28.79% 2.70% 12.09% 6.26% 8.72% 30.10% 41.44% 16.70%
20-23 December 2020 NIDA 2,533 30.32% 1.65% 13.46% 7.74% 7.50% 32.10% 39.33% 16.86%
18-23 September 2020 NIDA 2,527 18.64% 1.54% 10.57% 5.70% 3.92% 54.13% 5.50% 8.07%
22–24 June 2020 NIDA 2,517 25.47% 1.67% 8.07% 3.93% 4.57% 44.06% 12.23% 17.40%
Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Prayut Jurin Sudarat Thanathorn Sereepisuth No Preference Others Lead
18–20 December 2019 NIDA 2,511 23.74% 2.47% 11.95% 31.42% 3.90% 17.32% 9.20% 7.68%

Notes
  1. As Future Forward Party, Move Forward Party's predecessor
  2. Move Forward Party is a de facto successor to the Future Forward Party

References
  1. Thailand CIA World Factbook
  2. Thailand's New Electoral System Thai Data Points
  3. Thongnoi, Jitsiree; Jaipragas, Bhavan (22 March 2019). "Thai election a battle royale for junta's Prayuth and the Shinawatras". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
  4. "Thai Parliament passes election changes favouring ruling party". The Business Times. 10 September 2021. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
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