2022 Portuguese legislative election

Early legislative elections will take place on 30 January 2022 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 15th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

2022 Portuguese legislative election

30 January 2022

230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader António Costa Rui Rio Catarina Martins
Party PS PSD BE
Leader since 28 September 2014 18 February 2018 30 November 2014
Leader's seat Lisbon Porto Porto
Last election 108 seats, 36.3% 79 seats, 27.8% 19 seats, 9.5%
Current seats 108 79 19
Seats needed 8 37 97

 
Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Inês Sousa Real
Party PCP CDS–PP PAN
Alliance CDU
Leader since 27 November 2004 26 January 2020 6 June 2021
Leader's seat Lisbon Porto (Not elected) Lisbon
Last election 12 seats, 6.3%[lower-alpha 1] 5 seats, 4.2% 4 seats, 3.3%
Current seats 12 5 3
Seats needed 104 111 113

 
Leader André Ventura João Cotrim de Figueiredo Collective leadership[lower-alpha 2]
Party CH IL LIVRE
Leader since 9 April 2019 8 December 2019 11 August 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon -
Last election 1 seat, 1.3% 1 seat, 1.3% 1 seat, 1.1%
Current seats 1 1 0[lower-alpha 3]
Seats needed 115 115 116


Incumbent Prime Minister

António Costa
PS


On 27 October 2021, the budget proposed by the Socialist minority government was rejected by the Assembly of the Republic. The Left Bloc (BE) and the Communist Party (PCP) joined the right-wing parties and rejected the budget.[1] On 4 November 2021, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, announced a snap election to be held on 30 January 2022.[2] The elections will happen during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

Background

Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by their own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

Liberal Initiative

Early in December 2019, the Liberal Initiative (IL) elected a new leader after their previous leader, Carlos Guimarães Pinto, stepped down. Their sole MP, João Cotrim de Figueiredo, was elected as leader with 96% of the votes in the party's convention.[3] The results were the following:

Ballot: 8 December 2019
Candidate Votes %
João Cotrim de Figueiredo 181 95.8
Blank/Invalid ballots 8 4.2
Turnout 189
Source: Results

Social Democratic Party

The Social Democrats (PSD), the largest opposition party, held a two-round leadership election on 11 January and 18 January 2020. Three candidates were in the race: incumbent PSD leader Rui Rio, former PSD parliamentary caucus leader Luís Montenegro and current Deputy Mayor of Cascais Miguel Pinto Luz.[4] Around 40,000 party members, out of almost 110,000, were registered to vote.[5] In the first round, on 11 January, Rui Rio polled ahead with 49% of the votes against the 41.4% of Luís Montenegro and 9.6% of Miguel Pinto Luz, with both Rio and Montenegro qualifying for a second round.[6] A week later, on 18 January, Rui Rio was re-elected as PSD leader with 53.2% of the votes, against the 46.8% of Luís Montenegro.[7] In both rounds, turnout of registered members achieved almost 80%. The results were the following:

Ballot: 11 and 18 January 2020
Candidate 1st Round 2nd Round
Votes % Votes %
Rui Rio 15,546 49.0 17,157 53.2
Luís Montenegro 13,137 41.4 15,086 46.8
Miguel Pinto Luz 3,030 9.6  
Blank/Invalid ballots 369 341
Turnout 32,082 79.01 32,582 80.20
Source: Official results

A leadership election in the PSD was held on 27 November 2021.[8] The original date was 4 December 2021, but the party voted to advance the date in one week. MEP Paulo Rangel was a candidate for the leadership.[9] He faced incumbent PSD leader Rui Rio, who announced his re-election bid on 19 October 2021.[10] Around 46,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, were registered to vote.[11] On 27 November 2021, Rui Rio defeated Paulo Rangel by a 52.4% to 47.6% margin and was reelected for a 3rd term as party leader.[12] The results were the following:

Ballot: 27 November 2021
Candidate Votes %
Rui Rio 18,852 52.4
Paulo Rangel 17,106 47.6
Blank/Invalid ballots 518
Turnout 36,476 78.17
Source: Official results

CDS – People's Party

CDS – People's Party also elected a new leader after former leader Assunção Cristas stepped down after the party's worst result ever in a general election in the 2019 elections. Five candidates were in the race: People's Youth leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, current CDS MP from Aveiro João Almeida, former MP Filipe Lobo d'Ávila, Abel Matos Santos and Carlos Meira. The new leader was elected in a party congress between 25 and 26 January 2020.[13] In that congress, in Aveiro city, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos was elected leader with 46.4% of the delegates votes, against the 38.9% of João Almeida and 14.5% of Filipe Lobo d'Ávila.[14] Abel Matos Santos and Carlos Meira had stepped down from the race, near the end of the congress but before the vote, in support of Rodrigues dos Santos.[15] The results were the following:

Ballot: 26 January 2020
Candidate Votes %
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos 671 46.5
João Almeida 562 39.0
Filipe Lobo d'Ávila 209 14.5
Blank/Invalid ballots 7
Turnout 1,449
Source: Results

People–Animals–Nature

In March 2021, the People–Animals–Nature (PAN) leader and spokesperson, André Silva, announced he was leaving the leadership of the party to dedicate more time to his family.[16] A party congress to elect a new leader was scheduled for the weekend of 5–6 June 2021. For that leadership congress, only one candidate stepped forward, Inês Sousa Real, the party's parliamentary leader. On 6 June, Inês Sousa Real was elected as leader of PAN with 87.2% of the votes in the party's congress in Tomar.[17] The results were the following:

Ballot: 6 June 2021
Candidate Votes %
Inês Sousa Real 109 87.2
Blank/Invalid ballots 16 12.8
Turnout 125
Source: Results

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[18] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 8 October 2023.[19] However, due to the rejection of the 2022 State Budget, during which the left-wing parties joined the right-wing parties and voted against the proposal, a snap election has been called for 30 January 2022.[2]

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[20]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[21] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[22]

The distribution of MPs by electoral district will be the following:[23]

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon48
Porto40
Braga19
Setúbal18
Aveiro16
Leiria10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém9
Viseu8
Madeira and Viana do Castelo6
Azores and Vila Real5
Castelo Branco4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Name Ideology Political
position
Leader 2019 result Current
seats
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista
Social democracy Centre-left António Costa 36.3%
108 / 230
108 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata
Liberal conservatism Centre-right Rui Rio 27.8%
79 / 230
79 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda
Democratic socialism
Left-wing populism
Left-wing Catarina Martins 9.5%
19 / 230
19 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Left-wing
to far-left
Jerónimo de Sousa 6.3%
[lower-alpha 1]
10 / 230
10 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"
Eco-socialism
Green politics
Left-wing Heloísa Apolónia
2 / 230
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular
Conservatism
Christian democracy
Right-wing Francisco Rodrigues
dos Santos
4.2%
5 / 230
5 / 230
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
Animal welfare
Environmentalism
Centre-left Inês Sousa Real 3.3%
4 / 230
3 / 230
CH Enough!
Chega!
National conservatism
Right-wing populism
Far-right André Ventura 1.3%
1 / 230
1 / 230
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal
Classical liberalism
Right-libertarianism
Centre-right
to right-wing
João Cotrim
de Figueiredo
1.3%
1 / 230
1 / 230
L LIVRE
LIVRE
Eco-socialism
Pro-Europeanism
Centre-left
to left-wing
Collective leadership 1.1%
1 / 230
0 / 230
Ind. Independent
Independente
Joacine Katar Moreira (expelled from LIVRE caucus)[24]
Cristina Rodrigues (left the People Animals Nature caucus)[25]
2 / 230

In addition, the following parties not represented in parliament are contesting:

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Confiar no Futuro »
« No caminho certo »
"Trust in the future"
"On the right path"
[27]
PSD TBA
BE « Razões fortes, compromissos claros » "Strong reasons, clear commitments" [28]
CDU « CDU, Força decisiva »
« Ao teu lado todos os dias »
"CDU, the Decisive Force"
"By your side every day"
[29]
CDS–PP TBA
PAN TBA
CH TBA
IL TBA
L « A alternativa é ser LIVRE » "The alternative is to be FREE"

Candidates' debates

A total of 37 debates are scheduled for these elections.[30]

2022 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Time Organisers Moderator(s)     I  Invitee    P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Costa
PSD
Rio
BE
Martins
CDU
Sousa
CDS–PP
Rodrigues dos Santos
PAN
Sousa Real
CH
Ventura
IL
Cotrim de Figueiredo
L
Tavares
Refs
2 Jan 2022 9PM RTP1 I N N N N N N N I [31]
10PM SIC Notícias N N I N N N I N N [31]
3 Jan 2022 9PM SIC N I N N N N I N N [31]
10PM CNN Portugal N N I I N N N N N [31]
4 Jan 2022 6:30PM SIC Notícias N N I N N N N N I [31]
9PM TVI I N N I N N N N N [31]
10PM RTP3 N N N N I I N N N [31]
5 Jan 2022 6:30PM RTP3 N N N N I N N I N [31]
9PM SIC N I I N N N N N N [31]
10PM CNN Portugal N N N N N N I N I [31]
6 Jan 2022 6:30PM CNN Portugal N N N I N N N N I [31]
9PM RTP1 I N N N N N I N N [31]
10PM SIC Notícias N N I N N N N I N [31]
7 Jan 2022 9PM TVI N I N N I N N N N [31]
10PM RTP1 N N N I N N I N N [31]
8 Jan 2022 9PM TVI I N N N N I N N N [31]
10PM RTP1 N I N N N N N N I [31]
11PM CNN Portugal N N N I I N N N N [31]
9 Jan 2022 9PM SIC I N N N I N N N N [31]
10PM RTP3 N N N N N N I I N [31]
11PM SIC Notícias N N N N N I N N I [31]
10 Jan 2022 6:30PM RTP3 N N I N N I N N N [31]
9PM RTP1 N I N N N N N I N [31]
10PM CNN Portugal N N N I N I N N N [31]
12 Jan 2022 6:30PM CNN Portugal N N N N I N I N N [31]
9PM SIC N I N I N N N N N [31]
10PM SIC Notícias N N N N N N N I I [31]
13 Jan 2022 9PM RTP1
SIC
TVI
I I N N N N N N N [31]
14 Jan 2022 6:30PM SIC Notícias N N N N N I I N N [31]
9PM TVI I N N N N N N I N [31]
10PM RTP3 N N I N I N N N N [31]
15 Jan 2022 9PM RTP1 N I N N N I N N N [31]
10PM RTP3 N N N I N N N I N [31]
17 Jan 2022 9PM RTP1 I I I I I I I I I [32]

Opinion polling

Local regression of polls conducted.

See also

Notes

  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) have contested every election since 1987 in a coalition called the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 6.3% of the vote and elected 12 MPs to parliament in 2019.
  2. Here pictured, the party's main candidate in this campaign, Rui Tavares, running for Lisbon.
  3. LIVRE had 1 MP elected to parliament in 2019, Joacine Katar Moreira, but she was expelled from the LIVRE caucus in January 2020.

References

  1. "Parlamento chumba Orçamento do Estado ", SIC Notícias, 27 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
  2. "Marcelo marca eleições para 30 de janeiro". www.dn.pt (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 November 2021.
  3. "João Cotrim Figueiredo eleito presidente da Iniciativa Liberal com 96% dos votos ", Observador, 8 December 2019. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
  4. "Três candidaturas à presidência do PSD formalmente aceites ", Observador, 2 January 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
  5. "Pelo menos 40 mil militantes podem votar nas próximas diretas do PSD", Correio da Manhã, 23 December 2019. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
  6. "Eleições PSD: Rio obteve 49,02% dos votos na 1.ª volta e Montenegro 41,42%", TVI24, 15 January 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  7. "Rio é reeleito e mostra-se disposto a gerar unidade no PSD ", Público, 19 January 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  8. Jornal de Notícias (6 November 2021). "Aprovada proposta de Rangel: diretas do PSD marcadas para dia 27 de novembro". Retrieved 6 November 2021.
  9. Público (15 October 2021). "Rangel anuncia que é candidato à liderança do PSD". Retrieved 15 October 2021.
  10. Rádio Renascença (19 October 2021). "Rui Rio recandidata-se à liderança do PSD". Retrieved 19 October 2021.
  11. Jornal i (19 November 2021). "Mais de 46 mil militantes do PSD vão poder votar nas eleições diretas". Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  12. Notícias ao Minuto (27 November 2021). "Oficial. Rui Rio reeleito presidente do partido com 52,43%". Retrieved 27 November 2021.
  13. "Cinco candidatos e doze estratégias. CDS em contagem decrescente para escolher sucessor de Cristas", ZAP, 2 January 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
  14. "Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: 'hoje ganhou o CDS'", Jornal de Notícias, 26 January 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2021.
  15. "Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos é o novo líder do CDS". Diário de Notícias, 26 January 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2021. "Carlos Meira e Abel Matos Santos desistiram para Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos."
  16. André Silva deixa liderança do PAN: "As pessoas não se devem eternizar nos cargos", TSF, 14 March 2021. Retrieved 22 April 2021.
  17. PAN: direção de Inês Sousa Real aprovada com 87,2% dos votos, Jornal de Notícias, 6 June 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  18. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2014. Retrieved 7 October 2015.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  19. Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
  20. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 29 October 2019.
  21. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
  22. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  23. "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-C/2021" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República n.º 235/2021, 1.º Suplemento, Série I de 6 de Dezembro de 2021. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
  24. Livre: "A partir deste momento tudo o que Joacine disser ou fizer na ação política não nos representa", Observador, 31 January 2020. Retrieved 31 January 2020.
  25. Mais uma saída do PAN. Cristina Rodrigues deixa partido e passa a deputada não inscrita, Sapo, 26 June 2020. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
  26. Botelho, Leonete. "Partido pan-europeu Volt candidata-se em 18 distritos". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 16 December 2021.
  27. "Costa lança cartazes, luta abre-se domingo". Expresso (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 December 2021.
  28. "BE Twitter Legislativas 2022". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 December 2021.
  29. "CDU Legislativas 2022". CDU (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 December 2021.
  30. Observador (15 December 2021). "RTP, SIC e TVI vão realizar 36 debates até às eleições legislativas, incluindo com o Livre". Retrieved 15 December 2021.
  31. "Legislativas: 36 debates, nove partidos e 14 dias para seguir na televisão. Veja aqui o calendário". Expresso (in Portuguese). 17 December 2021. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  32. "RTP, SIC e TVI acordam calendário de debates para as eleições de janeiro de 2022". RTP (in Portuguese). 17 December 2021. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
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