2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 Senate elections, will also be held on this date.
Election ratings
Latest published ratings for competitive seats
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
- Lean: clear advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
| District | CPVI[1] | Incumbent | Last result[2] | Cook December 9, 2021[3] |
IE December 3, 2021[4] |
Sabato December 2, 2021[5] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large | R+9 | Don Young (R) | 54.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Colorado 3 | R+8 | Lauren Boebert (R) | 51.4% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Colorado 7 | D+3 | Ed Perlmutter (D) | 59.1% D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Colorado 8 | R+1 | New seat | - | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Illinois 6 | D+5 | Sean Casten (D) and Marie Newman (D) | - | Lean D | Likely D | |
| Illinois 11 | D+5 | Bill Foster (D) | 63.3% D | Likely D | Likely D | |
| Illinois 13 | D+4 | New seat | - | Lean D | Likely D | |
| Illinois 14 | D+4 | Lauren Underwood (D) | 50.7% D | Lean D | Lean D | |
| Illinois 17 | D+3 | Cheri Bustos (D) (retiring) |
52.0% D | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Indiana 1 | D+4 | Frank J. Mrvan (D) | 56.6% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D |
| Iowa 1 | R+3 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | 49.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | Ashley Hinson (R) | 51.2% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Iowa 3 | R+3 | Cindy Axne (D) | 48.9% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Maine 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden (D) | 53.0% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Maryland 1 | R+4 | Andy Harris (R) | 63.4% R | Lean R | ||
| Montana 1 | R+7 | New seat | - | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Nebraska 2 | R+1 | Don Bacon (R) | 50.8% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Nevada 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus (D) | 61.8% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Nevada 3 | D+2 | Susie Lee (D) | 48.8% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Nevada 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford (D) | 50.7% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D |
| North Carolina 2 | EVEN | G. K. Butterfield (D) (retiring) |
54.2% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina 4 | R+5 | New seat | – | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 11 | R+9 | Kathy Manning (D) and Virginia Foxx (R) | 62.3% D and 66.9% R | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) |
| North Carolina 14 | R+7 | New seat | – | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Ohio 1 | R+2 | Steve Chabot (R) | 51.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | |
| Ohio 9 | R+4 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | 63.1% D | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | |
| Ohio 13 | R+2 | Anthony Gonzalez (R) (retiring) |
63.2% R | Lean R | Lean R | |
| Ohio 15 | R+6 | Mike Carey (R) | 58.3% R | Solid R | Likely R | |
| Oregon 4 | D+4 | Peter DeFazio (D) (retiring) |
51.5% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Oregon 5 | D+1 | Kurt Schrader (D) | 51.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Oregon 6 | D+4 | New seat | – | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Texas 15 | D+1 | New seat | – | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Texas 23 | R+5 | Tony Gonzales (R) | 50.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 28 | D+5 | Henry Cuellar (D) | 58.3% D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| District | 2021 CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result | Cook | IE | Sabato |
Generic ballot polls
The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.
| Polling aggregates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Democratic | Republican | Lead |
| FiveThirtyEight | Dec 10, 2021 | until Dec 10, 2021 | 42.0% | 43.0% | +1.0% |
| RealClearPolitics | Dec 10, 2021 | Nov 1 - Dec 7, 2021 | 42.2% | 45.5% | +3.3% |
| Average | 42.1% | 44.3% | +2.2% | ||
Party listings
The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.
Democratic-held seats
The NRCC is now targeting 70 Democrat held seats.[6] They released their initial list February 10, 2021[7] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021[8] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. The first two lists were published before redistricting, however the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021.[9]
Republican-held seats
On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats.[10] This list was published before redistricting.
References
- "Enacted Maps and 2022 Ratings". The Cook Political Report. October 1, 2021. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
- "House election results 2020". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
- "2022 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
- "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
- "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". 3 November 2021.
- "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
- "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. 4 May 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
- "DCCC Announces Members of 2021-2022 Frontline Program". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
- "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.