2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent three-term Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for reelection to a fourth term.
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Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates will run in a nonpartisan blanket primary on August 16, 2022,[1] from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Voters will then utilize ranked voting during the general election.[2]
Due to Murkowski's opposition to some of his initiatives and her vote for conviction following his second impeachment trial, former U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to campaign against Murkowski in 2022.[3][4] On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that they would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle.[5][6]
Murkowski survived a primary defeat in 2010[7] by winning the general election as a write-in candidate, becoming one of only two U.S. senators in history to have done so.[8][9]
Candidates
Declared
- Sam Little, musician, truck driver, National Guard veteran and candidate for governor in 2010[10]
- Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present)[11]
- Karl Speights, retired USAF officer and Trump campaign activist[10]
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration[12]
Publicly expressed interest
- Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[13]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008[14]
Declined
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska (2018–present) (running for re-election)[15][16]
Publicly expressed interest
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator for District I (2019–present); member of the Anchorage Assembly (2008–2017)[17]
Potential
- Edgar Blatchford, professor, former mayor of Seward, and two-time Senate candidate[18]
Declared
- Dustin Darden, city maintenance worker and perennial candidate[10]
Declared
Publicly expressed interest
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[20]
Endorsements
Lisa Murkowski (R)
- U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[21]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[22]
- Jeff Flake, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2013–2019)[23]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present)[24]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–present) (Democrat)[25][26]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[27]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[28]
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present)[29]
- Political action committees
- Senate Leadership Fund[30]
- Organizations
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[28]
- Renew America Movement[31]
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
- Executive Branch Officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[32]
- Justin R. Clark, former Director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs (2017–2018) and the Office of Public Liaison (2018)[33]
- Bill Stepien, former White House Director of Political Affairs (2017–2018)[33]
- Individuals
- Tuckerman Babcock, political strategist and former chair of the Alaska Republican Party (2016–2018)[34]
- Corey Lewandowski, political operative, lobbyist, political commentator, and author[33]
- Brad Parscale, senior adviser for data and digital operations for Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[33]
- Donald Trump Jr, businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[35]
- Organizations
Primary election
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Edgar Blatchford (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 1] | March 29, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 18% | 6% | 19% | 34% | 21% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Solid R | July 16, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Solid R | October 8, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Safe R | March 11, 2021 |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Joe Miller (L) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | |||
| 2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||
| 3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | ||
| 2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||
| 3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1%[lower-alpha 2] | 12% |
| 3[lower-alpha 3] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – | – | |||||||
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Would not vote with 1%
- Excluding undecided voters
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by 314 Action
References
- "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info".
- Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- Desiderio, Andrew (June 4, 2020). "Trump vows to campaign against Murkowski after she backs Mattis". Politico. Retrieved June 4, 2020.
- Acosta, Jim; Pellish, Aaron (March 6, 2021). "Trump says he'll campaign against Murkowski in Alaska next year". CNN. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
- Steinhauser, Paul (March 16, 2021). "Alaska GOP censures Murkowski, says it will recruit primary challenger". Fox News. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
- "Lisa Murkowski censured by Alaska Republicans for voting to convict Trump". the Guardian. Associated Press. March 16, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
- Bolstad, Erika (January 5, 2011). "After primary loss, write-in win, legal battle, Murkowski sworn in". McClatchy.
- Khan, Huma (November 16, 2010). "Lisa Murkowski Makes History, Wins Alaska Senate Race But Joe Miller Not Conceding". ABC News. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
- "Miller Concedes Loss to Murkowski". www.cbsnews.com. December 31, 2010. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
- Thiessen, Mark (April 27, 2021). "Alaska candidate shadowed by anti-gay article, election post". Associated Press. Anchorage. Archived from the original on June 12, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
- "Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski to run in 2022; Trump backs rival". Associated Press. November 12, 2021. Retrieved November 12, 2021.
- Becky Bohrer (March 29, 2021). "Republican announces run for Murkowski's Alaska Senate seat". Associated Press. Retrieved March 29, 2021.
- Kerry Picket (April 6, 2021). "Lisa Murkowski trails GOP challenger: Poll". Washington Examiner.
- "Sarah Palin Is Considering Running For Senate 'If God Wants Me To'—And Here We Go Again". Comic Sands. August 2, 2021. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
- Lottsfeldt, Jim (August 12, 2020). "It sure looks like Dunleavy is running for U.S. Senate in 2022". The Midnight Sun.
- Brooks, James (August 13, 2021). "Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
- Landfield, Jeff (July 27, 2021). "Democratic State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson considering run for U.S. Senate". The Alaska Landmine. Retrieved July 28, 2021.
- "ALASKA STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM". www.politico.com. March 29, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
- "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov.
- Jacob Rubashkin (April 12, 2021). "Alaska Senate: Al Gross, 2020 Nominee, Considering Another Run". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 12, 2021.
- Niedzwiadek, Nick (March 7, 2021). "Sen. Barrasso backs Murkowski after Trump targets her". Politico.
- Suzanne Downing (April 16, 2021). "Murkowski raises $380,687 in first quarter, as Tshibaka raises $214,844 in three days". Must Read Alaska.
- Jeff Flake [@JeffFlake] (March 7, 2021). "Alaska, and the country, is fortunate to have lisamurkowski in the Senate. Alaska voters know that, and she'll be just fine" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Associated Press (February 19, 2021). "GOP senator accuses Trump allies of embracing 'cancel culture'". The American Independent.
- Everett, Burgess. "Democrat Joe Manchin says there's one GOP senator he'd endorse 'in a heartbeat'". POLITICO.
- Lizza, Ryan; Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Daniels, Eugene. "POLITICO Playbook: Manchin endorses Murkowski, and the border crisis Trump saw coming". POLITICO.
- Alex Rogers (March 30, 2021). "Republican Kelly Tshibaka launches Senate campaign against Lisa Murkowski". CNN.
- Wang, Amy B. "Defying Trump, Rick Scott backs McConnell and Murkowski, tiptoes around false claims about election fraud". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on November 8, 2021. Retrieved November 8, 2021.
- Ardrey, Taylor (March 28, 2021). "Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan said he'll 'support' Sen. Lisa Murkowski's reelection". Business Insider.
- Paul Steinhauser (April 9, 2021). "Top pro-Senate GOP PAC endorses Murkowski's 2022 reelection bid". Retrieved April 11, 2021.
- "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
- Axelrod, Tal (June 18, 2021). "Trump endorses Murkowski challenger". TheHill. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
- Alex Isenstadt (March 29, 2021). "Trump alums sign up with new Murkowski opponent". Politico.
- Surreal ValeCity (April 5, 2021). "Former Republican Chairmen dndorse Kelly Tshibaka". www.surrealvalecity.com.
- Downing, Suzanne (August 6, 2021). "Donald Trump Jr. jumps in, supports Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
- Celine Castronuovo (July 10, 2021). "Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger". The Hill. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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